Global Security Daily Brief: 2026-10-13

Americas #

• Venezuela's government under acting President Delcy Rodríguez handed Álvaro Pulido, Álex Saab's business associate held in Caracas since 2023, to the US; Deputy Attorney General Blanche announced it on 2026-10-11 and Pulido was due before a Miami federal court on 2026-10-13. El País says it is the second such handover after Saab's on 2026-05-16, and that Caracas has not commented. Maduro's SDNY narcoterrorism case was expanded last Thursday with a charge of conspiracy to torture. Journalist Roberto Deniz calls the handover "more like a political bargain than a genuine will to pursue justice". reported (El País)
• The State Department recalled its chargé d'affaires in Nicaragua, Elias Baumann, for consultations on 2026-10-13 after Ortega and Murillo refused agrément to Natasha Franceschi, the ambassador nominee confirmed by the Senate on 2026-09-30. The US called the refusal a "total lack of willingness" to engage diplomatically; El País notes a recall does not by itself mean a break in relations, and that the OAS adopted a resolution on 2026-10-02 creating a ministerial follow-up group on Nicaragua. Nicaragua has not commented publicly. reported (El País)

Europe #

• Zelensky said a Russian ballistic missile attack hit Kyiv's Darnytska CHP-4 and a residential building on 2026-10-13, with "no early warning from our partners". Mayor Klitschko said one person was killed and 13 injured in the strike on the apartment block, four of them seriously. BBC reports it was the second night in a row Kyiv was hit by Russian missiles; Trump said earlier that day "We are helping them and we are sharing intel", and declined to say whether Russia had broken the ceasefire. BBC adds that CHPP-4 was severely damaged in a February missile attack that forced it to shut down. These are Ukrainian claims. unconfirmed (BBC)
• Indicator hit: any US step against Ukraine's refinery strikes. Reuters, relayed by Ukrainska Pravda, reports that Witkoff and Kushner told the Ukrainian delegation in Miami on 2026-10-09 that the Russian diesel deal was meant to bring Moscow back to talks ("Now it's your turn to do something"), that Putin is not currently prepared to negotiate, and that Kushner again raised Trump's request that Ukraine stop striking Russian refineries. Three sources, one of whom was at the meeting, told Reuters the Americans did not threaten to cut off support if Ukraine refused; Ukrainian participants stayed sceptical. reported (Ukrainska Pravda)
• Two more merchant ships were struck by drones off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast (BBC gives no attack date; Radev's summons came on 2026-10-13). Local officials say 11 crew are missing and one was saved from the ship that sank 17 nautical miles east of Krapets; all 15 crew of the Ukrainian-owned second ship, hit 18 nautical miles from Byala, were rescued. Prime Minister Radev summoned Russia's ambassador, saying there was no conclusive evidence against "either side" but "the logic suggests that the outcome benefits the Russian Federation"; the ambassador said she had no information from Russia's defence ministry and suggested a third-party provocation. Rutte told Radev NATO has strengthened its eastern flank posture. BBC notes the ships were just outside Bulgarian territorial waters and that two ships were hit on 2026-10-06, one of which, the Alfa Watan, sank with all 10 crew presumed dead. Russia's military has not commented publicly. reported (BBC)
• MI5 director general Sir Ken McCallum said in an annual speech that his service devotes more resource to state threats than in the Cold War, called Russia "aggressor number one", and said Iran-linked activity in the UK produced 50 arrests in the past year, aimed at Jewish communities and "harder targets, like military sites". He did not mention arrests at RAF Fairford directly in the speech and told reporters afterwards it was "not unique". He also said nearly 1,000 expulsions had "eviscerated" Russia's covert footprint, leaving it paying criminals to act. reported (BBC)
• Dutch-Belgian grocer Ahold Delhaize took some systems offline after a cyberattack, with deliveries and online orders at Albert Heijn and Delhaize in the Netherlands and Belgium disrupted according to local media; the company says stores remain open. SecurityWeek says it is unclear whether this is linked to the weekend cyberattack that hit fridges and freezers in hundreds of European supermarkets. reported (SecurityWeek)

Middle East #

• The Saudi-led coalition struck the Houthi-run Yemen Petroleum Company's al-Sabaha facility near Sanaa on 2026-10-13; spokesman al-Maliki said four missiles and two drones were intercepted near Riyadh, missiles aimed at Dammam were intercepted, and shrapnel fell on a residential area in Dhahran. The Houthis warned they would target Riyadh's airport and Aramco refinery and Aramco's Dammam headquarters; the Yemen Petroleum Company said the site held no petroleum stock. BBC counts 13 killed at King Khalid airport on 2026-10-10 and one more in a similar attack the next day. Trump did not say whether he has decided to help Saudi retaliation, said he "might" ask Erdogan to intervene, and wrote that the Houthis are "purposefully trying to drive up Oil Prices". The UN reports at least 54 civilian deaths in Yemen since August and suspected cholera cases up from 217 to 647 in three weeks. reported (BBC)

Indo-Pacific #

• Pakistan's state of emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: schools in Peshawar reopened and internet was restored by 2026-10-13, but police would not confirm any detentions amid a visible crackdown, and Chief Minister Afridi's whereabouts are unknown (PTI says arrested, the government says protective custody). Information Minister Tarar said the PTI provincial government was "hand in glove with the terrorists" without evidence. Outside analysts differ on motive: Chatham House's Farzana Sheikh says the terrorism rationale sounds "disingenuous"; the Atlantic Council's Michael Kugelman sees a message to a restless PTI and warns it "could actually backfire"; analyst Zahid Hussain says the balance of power has shifted completely to the military establishment, which BBC says he sees as behind the decision. reported (BBC)
• The EU's 2026-10-12 sanctions package, which NK News puts at 1,569 individuals and entities, includes three individuals and four entities added to the EU's autonomous North Korea list for supporting Pyongyang's weapons programs, per the Council's press release; the package also has a section on Russia-DPRK cooperation. The article is cut off after the first lines of the Council's description. reported (NK News)
• The US Embassy in Fiji said on 2026-10-12 that China-linked hackers compromised the network of an unnamed Suva-based regional organisation between July and August 2026 and kept access over several days; it briefed the Fijian government and the organisation. The article also lists a US Justice Department seizure of seven domains earlier in October, used against a Chinese IT firm's alleged hacking of critical infrastructure. Attribution is the embassy's. reported (The Straits Times)

Africa #

• Indicator hit: Eritrean statement on its troops in Tigray. A report carried by The New Arab says Ethiopian troops reached Zalambessa on the Eritrean border on 2026-10-13 (six sources: four in touch with residents, a diplomat and a conflict expert); a pro-government militia spokesperson did not confirm it. Witnesses and a conflict monitor say Eritrean troops crossed into Zalambessa last week in support of the rebels, though it was unclear whether they were still there. Asmara denies any incursion, calls Addis Ababa's accusations a "declaration of war", and has asked the Security Council to act against Ethiopia under Chapter VII; the Council was due to meet in closed session on 2026-10-13. reported (The New Arab)
• Former DRC president Joseph Kabila was named leader of the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation, a new rebel coalition unveiled on 2026-10-12 at a press conference at his residence in Goma, which M23 has held since last year. The group says it will pursue its aims "by all means, including force"; M23 leader Sultani Makenga is one of four deputies, all from the AFC-M23 alliance. Kabila was sentenced to death in absentia for treason a year ago and had denied links to M23. The government has not commented. reported (BBC)
• Two Egyptian truck drivers were shot dead in a Khartoum market on 2026-10-12; Sudanese police sources say the suspect, 23, told investigators he acted to avenge a brother killed with the miners in the border bombing, which is unverified. Sudan's Burhan ordered a fact-finding committee on the strikes on gold miners (Emergency Lawyers counts at least 72 dead); Egypt's military describes a "third phase" of a campaign against illegal gold extraction. OCHA says dozens died in the 2026-10-10 bombing and separately condemned drone attacks that reportedly killed more than 30 civilians near a displacement camp at Wad El Mahi, Blue Nile, on 2026-10-09. reported (Dabanga)

Commodities #

• France's navy boarded the tanker DF Peak more than 450 nautical miles south of Réunion on 2026-10-12, according to President Macron, who said it was suspected of sailing under a false flag and of illicit fuel trafficking. Ukrainska Pravda, citing a Ukrainian military-intelligence portal, says the vessel is linked to sanctioned Sovcomflot, carries crude and is under US, EU, UK, Canadian, Japanese, Swiss and Ukrainian sanctions; that link is the portal's claim. reported (Ukrainska Pravda)
• Indicator hit: weekly attack tallies. WWD, citing UKMTO data, reports six vessels attacked in and around Hormuz on 2026-10-11, the highest single-day tally of the conflict, including the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy (23 crew rescued by the Omani Navy, one engineer missing) and the product tanker Petro Dolphin (two of 11 crew missing, per India's government). It cites FT calculations of 24 ships hit in the two weeks to 2026-10-11, against 13 in the next most intense fortnight (early March). Kpler figures put Hormuz flows at 2.9 million barrels on 2026-10-11, the lowest in October, with the seven-day average about 43% below pre-conflict levels, after Gulf oil flows averaged 15.5 million b/d in September. Brent settled at $106.65 on 2026-10-12 and eased about 1% on 2026-10-13. Xeneta data show Far East to Mediterranean spot rates down 43% since 2026-07-01 to $4,007 per 40-foot container. reported (WWD)
• OPEC's monthly report on 2026-10-13 cut 2026 oil demand growth to about 200,000 b/d from about 400,000 b/d in September (about 600,000 b/d in August), and raised its 2027 growth forecast to about 2.6 million b/d from about 2.4 million. Brent peaked at $107.33 on 2026-10-12 and traded below $106 on 2026-10-13. The article cites the WTO as saying Hormuz shipping stayed "highly restricted" in July and August. reported (Yahoo Finance)

Cyber #

• US law enforcement and CrowdStrike disrupted North Korea's "Famous Chollima" IT-worker scheme: the FBI searched more than 40 Texas residences and seized 187 laptops and other devices in Operation Lonestar Roundup, announced 2026-10-13, and CrowdStrike says the broader campaign hit more than 70 US companies, with two arrests in Ohio. Prosecutors say the earnings fund Pyongyang's weapons programs; CrowdStrike expects only a short-term slowdown as operatives adapt. reported (Nextgov)

How this was made: methodology and limits.